What about The Super Bowl?
One theory is to put a lot of people in a situation where the odds of success are great (such as the last 15 minutes of a Super Bowl). I believe that this is how you end up with the best possible outcome of winning a game – and most likely that outcome is a winning score. I think there is also a strong possibility that the outcome is a draw.
The odds of a draw in a sport of such grandness – and the magnitude of the win in which odds are not much more important than skill – is approximately 1000-to-1.
This is the mathematical formula I use to estimate the chances of a draw.
Draws, as an event and a game, are inherently unpredictable. This means that when an event or a game is close it is impossible for a calculation of the odds to be very accurate, because a few factors may differ radically between different events and games.
Here’s a graph of probabilities – the higher the number of dots, the greater the change in chance for an event or event game. The line graph shows the cumulative probability of a result over one hour.
I don’t know how the above image was drawn – but it is, as it shows the variation in the probability of outcomes of the Super Bowl between 1984 and 2012.
A lot of the changes in this graph were due to a variety of variables – so it is not very useful for estimating probabilities from this graph. However, it shows that the Super Bowl is likely more evenly-balanced than people tend to think, which gives a hint about why the odds were so close in this particular case.
What is the best chance of winning the Super Bowl between a 1-in-10,000,000 and a 1-in-6 million?
The best chance of a Super Bowl winning between a 1-in-10,000,000 and a 1-in-6 million would be (depending on your level of maths ability – see above point) approximately:
the odds of winning an actual Super Bowl between a 1-in-5,000,000 and a 1-in-1,000,000
The odds of a 1-in-2,300,000 and a 1-in-5,000,000 are:
a) the odds of a 1-in-500,000 and a 1-in-1,000,000 occurring in the same hour
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