In the United States presidential election cycle, the most important race in November takes on a slightly different complexion. The race is not the “most important” race in America in the sense of being the most important election in a candidate’s lifetime. This would be the 2000 election. Or perhaps the 2006 election with the Tea Party movement. Or maybe even 2012 with its growing anti-government sentiment.
The most important race in America in 2017, in any event, is the presidential election. For Republicans, it has changed from a narrow Democratic advantage to a narrow Republican advantage to a tight Republican advantage. At least for the time being.
In recent elections, one candidate has consistently polled at or near the top of the polls. That is Donald Trump. As I noted in the above article, the 2016 election campaign was a great story for Donald Trump. The Republican nominee, like the rest of his party, is generally seen as “soft”, not just in regards to social issues but also from foreign policy. This may not make sense for a number of reasons. But what it does is makes for great TV. This is what’s been the best selling story in America for weeks and weeks, a sort of Trump and Trumpism. Now, with that show ending (at least until the final week), what will remain the best selling story?
On the Democratic side Hillary Clinton. This is important as we’ll see, and I will get to it. But for now, let’s talk about the Republican party.
The Donald Trump
Now we get to the point where you might wonder: if President Trump were to lose, what would that mean for the Republican Party? As many Democrats have already pointed out, there’s no way to predict what Republicans would do in the event of a President Trump. It’s a long shot. But with many Democrats asking for the Republican party to go into disarray, what would happen? Would the Republican party become more conservative? Or would it become more liberal?
The question I asked in the above article is whether the party should continue being conservative, or not, and my answer to that is that we wouldn’t know until 2020-2024. This means that we could be dealing in 2020-2025 with a fairly normal election cycle. For a while. The presidential race would remain a close race with the current front runner being relatively popular. As long as Republican voters continue seeing Trump as the leader of the Republican party, and their candidates continue to do well, their
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