Well, if I have enough money, there’s a good chance it’s 00. If not, there might not be any odds on the table, at least not in the roulette. But even if we don’t have enough money on the table, the chances of me getting it at all (1-in-256,000) is 0.00001, which is not very high. And if your bet is 100, how likely is it that I’ll win it? Well, it’s 0.0278, which is a lot less of a shot than it is on the table.
So, yes, it doesn’t make sense to assume that the same player would hold exactly 1000 roulette balls each time that he or she bet, but it does come with its own caveats: The odds of receiving the same bet twice may be small, as in the previous example, but in general, there’s some risk. And the chances of receiving the same roulette ball twice is 0.000007, not 0.00001, which means that the odds of me winning is about 1 in 3 million per chance.
So if the first example is not statistically significant, the odds of me winning do not matter. So for the second example, it seems logical to assume that a player who gets a “50/50” chance of winning is very unlikely to have made the same bet and that the chance of losing it is much, much higher.
In the above examples, there may be a simple way to calculate the odds of that player winning the bet, either by adding up all odds given in the table or by multiplying the odds that they win together with the odds they win against the table’s odds of victory. But for those who don’t know how to add up all odds, I’m going to use the same rule that I use when evaluating the probability of a lottery win:
If the odds given on the table are a certain percentage of the value of the roulette ball, then the odds given at the table are about as likely to be true as those given on the table.
Now that there are two examples that I’ve already written up that give the same probability number (i.e., an expected total outcome with a fixed chance of winning 50-50), what are the odds of the following:
Player A has won 100 roulette balls
Player B wins 50 roulette balls
Player C has won 60 roulette balls
Player D has
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