No, not at all.
However, because of the unpredictability of these games, the results of these games are extremely important for poker. We need to be aware of these games so that we can predict the outcome from our knowledge of the actual outcomes. If we are unfamiliar with a particular game we should be very suspicious of it.
If you have ever watched professional poker, you will be familiar with the concept of the “high-variance” game, or where you are the underdog. Here a large number of small individual plays make up the vast majority of the winning strategy. In the same way, high-variance bets are risky and should only be made with a small amount (less than 1%) of the total money bet. When this is the case there are many “high-variance” games with low probability of pay-offs.
One thing to remember about these games you can learn from is to look for situations where the pay-off of the high-variance game is relatively close to the payoff of other games. This means that if it seems like there is something very likely we shouldn’t be taking a high-variance bet. Similarly, if there are many small and small specific actions, we should be very suspicious of those.
Let’s turn our attention to the roulette table. Here the high-variance game makes up the vast majority of the winning strategy. This means that in this game if we were to take a high-variance bet, for example with $100.00 we have to expect almost $70 in expected profit. It’s like putting down the blinds at one roll of the roulette wheel and making five bets using the high-variance gambles.
Let’s compare this to a situation like a poker pot, which typically has around 50-100 players. If we took $100.00 on the roulette table, we would expect a 5-betting strategy to get an expected return of 0.0016, less than half of the true return of a 5-bet. It is no surprise, then, that a roulette pot with a high-variance game will result in a loss.
In this instance we are almost paying too much in this case, so we will not take the high-variance gambles.
Another thing we’ll notice is that the high-variance gambles can sometimes appear to have less variance than the other gambles. This is because they typically make
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