A swing chart is a way of viewing the game and giving your predictions the appropriate credit and blame to how well you were able to predict it all.
If your forecast goes south, you don’t get blamed for not watching enough baseball or you take your points away from the rest of us. Conversely, if your forecast goes well and you put your points in the correct column, the rest of us will be all “wow, you guys were on point again!”
This is probably for the best because when the projections come at you like this, you want to be able to back away and take a deep breath. This is probably what John Farrell did in his press conference.
He had some interesting things to say in his comments but if you listen closely you might hear some people being too quick to point out where he makes any incorrect assumptions, the ones that seem wrong are just the ones he would like to point out.
Here’s the thing though, I’m not going to tell you “trust us”. They’re going to tell you a little too much that could make them look worse than they already have. But since we know that you are in a bubble and they can’t show that they can’t mess up, we might be able to have an understanding of where their forecast might be heading.
Here’s what I would have told them:
You are predicting the Chicago Cubs to be 7.5 games under .500 when they win a bunch of games this year. That’s the team that we think has it all in them, that they are ready to win the National League Central. This team still has the talent to win the division in 2017, but that talent could be further depleted by the loss of some key members of this roster. The lineup, for instance is going to be pretty underprepared for them, with most players taking a step back in 2018. But that’s the Cubs’ roster, and not yours.
To me, this feels like a lot more than they’re taking. It’s one thing to be wrong in the first few weeks of a season, but they’re in a bubble, they need to let this bubble breathe. Now the question is if they are ready to let the bubble breathe at all? That’s up to them.
The rest of the press conference was interesting in what he didn’t say. The general consensus is that the Cubs are going to be bad in what they are set to do.
Well they were going to just