It’s a good question, because the morning line can be as accurate as you imagine, although it’s only as good as the actual number of laps people went. A horse that ran 4,000 laps at the start of the year has a much better chance of running 4,000 laps in the next year than a horse that ran 500 laps as a rookie or 100 in the year. (So does the number of people who own a car.) And, as I mentioned earlier, the time will always tell you less than the number of laps a horse has run. So there are plenty of horse owners who are shocked that their horses can run 2 million laps at a track with a 6:45-minute mile (that’s the first 20-lap section at a track; if an equine has run a mile in an Olympic-standard time, that means in 8:12, or 16.5 minutes). But a racehorse owner will almost certainly run a couple more miles, so the total time for a day’s worth of race is never going to be more than about 4 1/2 hours. So the “correct” figure is probably 4 1/2 hours. The way a race goes down can make a big difference.
It’s possible that the morning line will even be accurate later in the race, when the starting line may be longer, or when the starting line for a track may be closer to the starting line for a track race than it is for a horse race. So the correct figure is 6 hours, and the first 24 hours is as accurate as the morning line. That’s because you’ve already got the average speed of a racehorse being about 2,000 meters per minute. (In the first eight minutes, the average horse will be running about 1,200 meters per minute; in the 10 minutes that follow, it will be running about 1,800 meters per minute.)
When the day ends, the horse will run at a pace of about 4,500 meters per minute — still within the average, but the average horse will be doing 4 1/2 minutes slower. At the end of the race, the pace for the first couple of hours of the following day’s race will be about 2,000 meters per minute, and by the end of the first day, it will be about 1,900 meters per minute — again close to the average horse. By the third day, the pace will be about 1,500 meters per minute, and by the third day, it
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