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In this series we analyze all of the available data points on Donald Trump’s performance this month to try and get a sense for whether what happened will be repeated next month. It’s the perfect scenario to start the month.
One theme that seems to emerge is that Trump has gained some ground on his opponents. This could be due to the media’s coverage of him, especially in the days leading up to the debate, but it’s unlikely to be the case.
This is because Trump’s overall performance was better than his poll numbers (but still below average). However, the polling averages were much closer than what voters saw coming into this debate. As such, Trump’s overall showing doesn’t seem as large of a change as might be expected.
As we progress through the month, these polls will give us a much clearer picture of how this debate will play out and the possible results.
With that said, one point could be made about these ratings:
The pollsters are not doing themselves any favors here. They are getting the same people. That’s the problem with polling: it has a huge sample and is therefore biased in favor of the incumbent candidate or the challenger. Pollsters will be working for their candidate and for their pollster’s candidate the rest of the way and as such will tend to oversample the incumbent.
This is what I mean when I say the pollsters don’t give us a good view of the election. It seems as though each poll shows Trump ahead by one point with an equal number showing Clinton leading.
Let’s look at the pollsters at a glance.
Politico is the least biased of the main pollsters and is currently one point behind
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